![]() |
|
|
|
#166 (permalink) |
|
Reality Analyst
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
|
Originally Posted by Iconoclast
ok, so the argument is that it is merely a fluctuation opposing the more general trend .
yep , just like that which is occurring in the rest of the solar system and has occurred thousands and millions of years before man was around , let alone the industrial revolution . Remember , i work from axiomatic principles . In any investigation , one should "follow the money "...in reality , money trumps science , when the science itself lies in the grey area between clearly demonstrable and highly nebulous .
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom Last edited by Axiom : 03-08-2010 at 09:18 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
#167 (permalink) |
|
Immoderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
|
Originally Posted by Axiom
90% correct! When ALL the know cycles are taken into account - eg solar output, galactic oscillations etc, there is still warming over and above what we would expect the temperature to be.
SO FAR, the only variable found that can explain the current rise is CO2. There might be something we don't know about, such as some strange loss of expected cloud cover, but, the best and brightest have not found it.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals. |
|
|
|
|
|
#168 (permalink) |
|
Reality Analyst
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
|
Originally Posted by Iconoclast
After monckton destroyed lambert in the debate , they did both in the end agree the whole theory rests on the 'co2 scalars' ( or called something similar ) ie . the basis of the science , the weight of this co2 variable has not been established .
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom |
|
|
|
|
|
#169 (permalink) |
|
Immoderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
|
True. The weights (coefficients) of ALL the variables are not yet nailed down. They are all approximates. The really big problem in modelling is that the coefficients effect each other. This creates non-linear responses to CO2 or any other "push" and so called "tipping points."
However, when we give them all the "best" weighting we get a projected 2 degree rise. Give them all the worst weighting and we get 6 degrees. 2=major climate change and a billion dead. 6=total catastrophe with 90-99% of everyone dead. What we do know is that every time we have made a temperature projection for ten-years hence, the actual outcome has been at the upper end of the calculated range. The current upper end projection is 6 degrees. So, on form alone we should all be worried about the future of humanity. This is the science. This is the record. This is what we should base our actions upon.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals. |
|
|
|
|
|
#170 (permalink) |
|
Tin Cup Champ 2004
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cairns
Posts: 6,233
ICC Handle: Advantage
FICS Handle: Advantage
|
Not necessarily, there could be countless variables contributing, if in fact - the earth's temperature in really rising!
__________________
. "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." ~ Isaiah Berlin ~ |
|
|
|
|
|
#171 (permalink) |
|
Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Getting owned by White in the Dragon and trying to recover lost positions from shock paralysis OTB
Posts: 2,044
ICC Handle: guest
|
James Lovelock
Originally Posted by Wikipedia
cheers,
P.S I post this for King-Walker
__________________
"...What I meant? Dear Mr Ian Rout (ACF news publisher) could you please put Ozchessforum in the next news letter! There is no reason to hide this forum from the Australian chess public. What they meant? Sorry, No english!- Amir Karibasic
|
|
|
|
|
|
#172 (permalink) |
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Byron Bay, NSW
Posts: 2,821
|
I dont go along with exact predictions especially because exact predictions are not necessary. I think the science holds up that there will be massive change and that that is all that we need to change our polluting ways. We have no idea how severe it could be - and why should we change because it is highly easily and we owe it to the earth and to our children etc.
And anyone who cant see that cant see that is a dope. |
|
|
|
|
|
#173 (permalink) |
|
Immoderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
|
Love Lovelock. He is right about the clouds and aerosols blank. However, there is ongoing research on the matter and there is no consensus: Some evidence of cooling, some of warming, therefore it is likely that we will find that the actual effect will be small. CO2 continues to be what the smart money is backing.
click here for more info .
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals. |
|
|
|
|
|
#174 (permalink) |
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 180
|
Few weeks ago ,I watched program on Insight about skeptic's and believer's
In hot seat was a well known Professor Stephen Schneider for believer's . There were good argument's for and against . Personally, l'am still up in air about it . Transcript is found here if anyone is interested SBS Insight |
|
|
|
|
|
#175 (permalink) |
|
Immoderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
|
Imagine 98 medicos from different fields said to you:
"You have gangrene and a 50% chance of dying within a week unless we amputate your foot today or your leg tomorrow." Now imagine another 2 medicos said to you: "This does not look like gangrene. Take these antibiotics get some rest and see me in a week." What do you do? This is not a joke. This is the question you need to answer.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals. |
|
|
|
|
|
#176 (permalink) |
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Byron Bay, NSW
Posts: 2,821
|
Originally Posted by Iconoclast
well my grandfather put a digging fork through his toe when about 88. Hadn't been to a doctor his whole life so wasn't going then, so got gangrene. First they took a foot then a leg, then another foot, then another leg - then he said stuff you I am not going to live like this so starved himself to death.
In those days you did not get second opinions never alone 98, esp with no Medicare in those days. I will throw you a leg if you like. |
|
|
|
|
|
#177 (permalink) |
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 331
|
Originally Posted by Iconoclast
More proper analogy would be:
80 medicos from different fields said to you: "You have gangrene and a 90% chance of dying within 10 years unless we amputate your foot today or your leg tomorrow. In this case you most likely will live for eleven years. We will also charge you handsomely for the surgery." Now imagine another 20 medicos said to you: "This does not look like gangrene. Take these antibiotics get some rest and see me in a week." Given that solution offered would merely delay global warming for six years (and cost trillions to implement), this analogy is more accurate. BTW, did you notice that global warming is now referred as "climate change"? Any thoughts why?
__________________
For private coaching email IgorGoldenberg@bluebottle.com Computer tells you what to play, a good coach explains why. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule. H. L. Mencken |
|
|
|
|
|
#178 (permalink) |
|
Reality Analyst
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
|
Originally Posted by Igor Goldenberg
Well, it allowed for all those annoying contradictions in their data/computer modeling simulations.
They tried warming, now change , next it will be cooling...oops , they tried that in the 70s. Looks like they pretty much got it covered ! Now they're even trying to change the past ! : Warmists plot secretly to kill off the Medieval Warming Period. Again – Telegraph Blogs lol
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom |
|
|
|
|
|
#179 (permalink) |
|
Reality Analyst
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
|
Originally Posted by antichrist
yes i'm anti pollution too.
.....just one tiny problem though a/c , CO2 IS NOT A POLLUTANT !
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom |
|
|
|
|
|
#180 (permalink) |
|
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 331
|
Originally Posted by Axiom
In strict sense no, it's not a pollutant as it's harmless to human (irrespectively of whether it causes global warming or not).
BTW, coal burning produces a lot of real pollutants that can be very harmful.
__________________
For private coaching email IgorGoldenberg@bluebottle.com Computer tells you what to play, a good coach explains why. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule. H. L. Mencken |
|
|
|
![]() |
| Thread Tools | |
| Rate This Thread | |
|
|