Go Back   OzChess - Australia's Chess Forum > Discussions Not Related to Chess (Non-Chess) > News & Contemporary Issues
Connect with Facebook

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-08-2010, 08:49 PM   #166 (permalink)
Reality Analyst
 
Axiom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
Default

Originally Posted by Iconoclast View Post
PLEASE, IN THE NAME OF ALL THINGS HOLY, please stop talking "unreality"
Look at the graph half way down this page.
ok, so the argument is that it is merely a fluctuation opposing the more general trend .
yep , just like that which is occurring in the rest of the solar system and has occurred thousands and millions of years before man was around , let alone the industrial revolution .

Remember , i work from axiomatic principles . In any investigation , one should "follow the money "...in reality , money trumps science , when the science itself lies in the grey area between clearly demonstrable and highly nebulous .
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom

Last edited by Axiom : 03-08-2010 at 09:18 PM
Axiom is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2010, 09:24 PM   #167 (permalink)
Immoderator
 
Iconoclast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
Default

Originally Posted by Axiom View Post
ok, so the argument is that it is merely a fluctuation opposing the more general trend .
yep , just like that which is occurring in the rest of the solar system and has occurred thousands and millions of years before man was around , let alone the industrial revolution .
90% correct! When ALL the know cycles are taken into account - eg solar output, galactic oscillations etc, there is still warming over and above what we would expect the temperature to be.

SO FAR, the only variable found that can explain the current rise is CO2. There might be something we don't know about, such as some strange loss of expected cloud cover, but, the best and brightest have not found it.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group.
The group is hopeless without its individuals.
Iconoclast is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2010, 11:48 PM   #168 (permalink)
Reality Analyst
 
Axiom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
Default

Originally Posted by Iconoclast View Post
90% correct! When ALL the know cycles are taken into account - eg solar output, galactic oscillations etc, there is still warming over and above what we would expect the temperature to be.

SO FAR, the only variable found that can explain the current rise is CO2. There might be something we don't know about, such as some strange loss of expected cloud cover, but, the best and brightest have not found it.
After monckton destroyed lambert in the debate , they did both in the end agree the whole theory rests on the 'co2 scalars' ( or called something similar ) ie . the basis of the science , the weight of this co2 variable has not been established .
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom
Axiom is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2010, 12:24 AM   #169 (permalink)
Immoderator
 
Iconoclast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
Default

Originally Posted by Axiom View Post
the weight of this co2 variable has not been established .
True. The weights (coefficients) of ALL the variables are not yet nailed down. They are all approximates. The really big problem in modelling is that the coefficients effect each other. This creates non-linear responses to CO2 or any other "push" and so called "tipping points."

However, when we give them all the "best" weighting we get a projected 2 degree rise. Give them all the worst weighting and we get 6 degrees. 2=major climate change and a billion dead. 6=total catastrophe with 90-99% of everyone dead.

What we do know is that every time we have made a temperature projection for ten-years hence, the actual outcome has been at the upper end of the calculated range. The current upper end projection is 6 degrees. So, on form alone we should all be worried about the future of humanity.

This is the science. This is the record. This is what we should base our actions upon.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group.
The group is hopeless without its individuals.
Iconoclast is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2010, 05:35 PM   #170 (permalink)
Tin Cup Champ 2004
 
Just2Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cairns
Posts: 6,233
ICC Handle: Advantage
FICS Handle: Advantage
Default

Originally Posted by Iconoclast View Post
SO FAR, the only variable found that can explain the current rise is CO2. There might be something we don't know about, such as some strange loss of expected cloud cover, but, the best and brightest have not found it.
Not necessarily, there could be countless variables contributing, if in fact - the earth's temperature in really rising!
__________________
.
"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing."

~ Isaiah Berlin ~
Just2Good is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2010, 09:19 PM   #171 (permalink)
Moderator
 
Firegoat7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Getting owned by White in the Dragon and trying to recover lost positions from shock paralysis OTB
Posts: 2,044
ICC Handle: guest
Default

James Lovelock

Originally Posted by Wikipedia
Climate and mass human mortality

Writing in the British newspaper The Independent in January 2006, Lovelock argues that, as a result of global warming, "billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable" by the end of the 21st century.[20] He has been quoted in The Guardian that 80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD, and this climate change will last 100,000 years.

He further predicts, the average temperature in temperate regions will increase by as much as 8°C and by up to 5°C in the tropics, leaving much of the world's land uninhabitable and unsuitable for farming, with northerly migrations and new cities created in the Arctic. He predicts much of Europe will become uninhabitable having turned to desert and Britain will become Europe's "life-raft" due to its stable temperature caused by being surrounded by the ocean. He suggests that "we have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain civilisation for as long as they can".[20]

He partly retreated from this position in a September 2007 address to the World Nuclear Association's Annual Symposium, suggesting that climate change would stabilise and prove survivable, and that the Earth itself is in "no danger" because it would stabilise in a new state. Life, however, might be forced to migrate en masse to remain in habitable climes.[21] In 2008, he became a patron of the Optimum Population Trust, which campaigns for a gradual decline in the global human population to a sustainable level.[22]

In a March 2010 interview with the Guardian newspaper, he said that democracy might have to be "put on hold" to prevent climate change.[23] He continued:

"The great climate science centres around the world are more than well aware how weak their science is. If you talk to them privately they're scared stiff of the fact that they don't really know what the clouds and the aerosols are doing...We do need scepticism about the predictions about what will happen to the climate in 50 years, or whatever. It's almost naive, scientifically speaking, to think we can give relatively accurate predictions for future climate. There are so many unknowns that it's wrong to do it."
cheers,

P.S I post this for King-Walker
__________________
"...What I meant?

Dear Mr Ian Rout (ACF news publisher) could you please put Ozchessforum in the next news letter! There is no reason to hide this forum from the Australian chess public.

What they meant?

Sorry, No english!- Amir Karibasic


Firegoat7 is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2010, 10:04 PM   #172 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
antichrist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Byron Bay, NSW
Posts: 2,821
Default

I dont go along with exact predictions especially because exact predictions are not necessary. I think the science holds up that there will be massive change and that that is all that we need to change our polluting ways. We have no idea how severe it could be - and why should we change because it is highly easily and we owe it to the earth and to our children etc.

And anyone who cant see that cant see that is a dope.
antichrist is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2010, 04:37 PM   #173 (permalink)
Immoderator
 
Iconoclast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
Default

Originally Posted by Firegoat7 View Post
James Lovelock
Love Lovelock. He is right about the clouds and aerosols blank. However, there is ongoing research on the matter and there is no consensus: Some evidence of cooling, some of warming, therefore it is likely that we will find that the actual effect will be small. CO2 continues to be what the smart money is backing.

click here for more info


.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group.
The group is hopeless without its individuals.
Iconoclast is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2010, 11:09 AM   #174 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
hobsonbay player's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 180
Default insight SBS , Global warming

Few weeks ago ,I watched program on Insight about skeptic's and believer's

In hot seat was a well known Professor Stephen Schneider for believer's .

There were good argument's for and against . Personally, l'am still up in air

about it . Transcript is found here if anyone is interested


SBS Insight
hobsonbay player is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2010, 06:44 PM   #175 (permalink)
Immoderator
 
Iconoclast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Wollongong NSW
Posts: 2,302
Default

Originally Posted by hobsonbay player View Post
Personally, l'am still up in air

about it.
Imagine 98 medicos from different fields said to you:
"You have gangrene and a 50% chance of dying within a week unless we amputate your foot today or your leg tomorrow."

Now imagine another 2 medicos said to you:
"This does not look like gangrene. Take these antibiotics get some rest and see me in a week."

What do you do? This is not a joke. This is the question you need to answer.
__________________
The individual is hopeless without the group.
The group is hopeless without its individuals.
Iconoclast is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2010, 07:07 PM   #176 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
antichrist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Byron Bay, NSW
Posts: 2,821
Default

Originally Posted by Iconoclast View Post
Imagine 98 medicos from different fields said to you:
"You have gangrene and a 50% chance of dying within a week unless we amputate your foot today or your leg tomorrow."

Now imagine another 2 medicos said to you:
"This does not look like gangrene. Take these antibiotics get some rest and see me in a week."

What do you do? This is not a joke. This is the question you need to answer.
well my grandfather put a digging fork through his toe when about 88. Hadn't been to a doctor his whole life so wasn't going then, so got gangrene. First they took a foot then a leg, then another foot, then another leg - then he said stuff you I am not going to live like this so starved himself to death.

In those days you did not get second opinions never alone 98, esp with no Medicare in those days. I will throw you a leg if you like.
antichrist is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2010, 09:16 AM   #177 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 331
Default

Originally Posted by Iconoclast View Post
Imagine 98 medicos from different fields said to you:
"You have gangrene and a 50% chance of dying within a week unless we amputate your foot today or your leg tomorrow."

Now imagine another 2 medicos said to you:
"This does not look like gangrene. Take these antibiotics get some rest and see me in a week."

What do you do? This is not a joke. This is the question you need to answer.
More proper analogy would be:
80 medicos from different fields said to you:
"You have gangrene and a 90% chance of dying within 10 years unless we amputate your foot today or your leg tomorrow. In this case you most likely will live for eleven years. We will also charge you handsomely for the surgery."

Now imagine another 20 medicos said to you:
"This does not look like gangrene. Take these antibiotics get some rest and see me in a week."

Given that solution offered would merely delay global warming for six years (and cost trillions to implement), this analogy is more accurate.

BTW, did you notice that global warming is now referred as "climate change"? Any thoughts why?
__________________
For private coaching email IgorGoldenberg@bluebottle.com
Computer tells you what to play, a good coach explains why.

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
H. L. Mencken
Igor Goldenberg is offline  

Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2010, 12:35 AM   #178 (permalink)
Reality Analyst
 
Axiom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
Default The Medieval Modeling Muppets

Originally Posted by Igor Goldenberg View Post

BTW, did you notice that global warming is now referred as "climate change"? Any thoughts why?
Well, it allowed for all those annoying contradictions in their data/computer modeling simulations.

They tried warming, now change , next it will be cooling...oops , they tried that in the 70s.
Looks like they pretty much got it covered !


Now they're even trying to change the past ! : Warmists plot secretly to kill off the Medieval Warming Period. Again – Telegraph Blogs lol

__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom
Axiom is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2010, 12:51 AM   #179 (permalink)
Reality Analyst
 
Axiom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,498
Default Brainwashed Parrot Alert !

Originally Posted by antichrist View Post
I dont go along with exact predictions especially because exact predictions are not necessary. I think the science holds up that there will be massive change and that that is all that we need to change our polluting ways. We have no idea how severe it could be - and why should we change because it is highly easily and we owe it to the earth and to our children etc.

And anyone who cant see that cant see that is a dope.
yes i'm anti pollution too.
.....just one tiny problem though a/c , CO2 IS NOT A POLLUTANT !
__________________
"Sometimes the obligation of the intelligent is to restate the obvious. None more important than emphatically stating that there is a : ' Naked Emperor Elephant in the Room' " Axiom
Axiom is offline  

Users Flag!
Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2010, 03:09 PM   #180 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 331
Default

Originally Posted by Axiom View Post
yes i'm anti pollution too.
.....just one tiny problem though a/c , CO2 IS NOT A POLLUTANT !
In strict sense no, it's not a pollutant as it's harmless to human (irrespectively of whether it causes global warming or not).
BTW, coal burning produces a lot of real pollutants that can be very harmful.
__________________
For private coaching email IgorGoldenberg@bluebottle.com
Computer tells you what to play, a good coach explains why.

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
H. L. Mencken
Igor Goldenberg is offline  

Reply With Quote
Reply


Go Back   OzChess - Australia's Chess Forum > Discussions Not Related to Chess (Non-Chess) > News & Contemporary Issues


Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:



All times are GMT +11. The time now is 12:05 AM.

Powered by vBulletin Copyright © 2000-2010 Jelsoft Enterprises Limited.

The views and opinions expressed in posts on this site are exclusively those of the member who made them, and do not represent the views or opinions of OzChess or OzChess's owners. OzChess does not endorse any post, and makes no representations about the truth or accuracy of any matter contained in any post made by members of this site.