Is the US in Decline? - OzChess

**Gumshoe Mystery** · 01-08-2008, 05:08 AM

With the US Dollar averaging around 2:1 with the GBP and the Euro getting stronger against both currencies, do you feel that America will become less depended on by other nations? Especially as the likes of China and India are starting to improve their economies and able to produce cheaper goods to the global market.

Gendo Ikari · 01-09-2008, 02:11 PM

I'm fairly sure the US economy is headed for a recession - the reserve bank has been doing patchwork to keep things afloat but it's going to catch up with them eventually.

**Virgil** · 01-10-2008, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by Gumshoe Mystery

With the US Dollar averaging around 2:1 with the GBP and the Euro getting stronger against both currencies, do you feel that America will become less depended on by other nations? Especially as the likes of China and India are starting to improve their economies and able to produce cheaper goods to the global market.

The capability to produce cheaper goods has long been a key factor in the growth of economies.
Japan and Taiwan were startling, and Taiwan continues to be.
Korea has been down this path.
Now China and India are on every-one's radar and have the added advantage of huge populations in comparison with J,T, and K.

The attempts by America to counter their high costs by off-shoring manufacturing to developing countries, and then repatriate the profit back to America must fail while they squander their profits on an attempt to be policeman to the world, and while they indulge in unnecessary wars, and while they try to export democracy to foreign cultures.

Without super-profits America will not have the fuel for economic growth. (Edit. I mean, without super-profits retained for growth investments in contrast to being diverted to cultural crusades).
The attempt (maybe not deliberate) to have a low cost Hispanic work-force on-shore via illegal immigration is also no solution if the profits are similarly squandered.

America has advantages in their position on technical-invention curves, and in their creativity. But these are advantages in the early part of a product development life-cycle. This is not where the super-profits are made for the long-term.

Yes, the USA will be overtaken. They show no signs of relinquishing the policeman war-like role they have chosen.

**Chessic-Adventures** · 01-10-2008, 03:17 PM

Originally Posted by Gumshoe Mystery

With the US Dollar averaging around 2:1 with the GBP and the Euro getting stronger against both currencies, do you feel that America will become less depended on by other nations? Especially as the likes of China and India are starting to improve their economies and able to produce cheaper goods to the global market.

Have we seen the decline of the American Empire? I would say no. The Iraq invasion showed that they are not afraid to use their military might. What about economically? Again, I think they will continue to be the world largest economy for at least the next 2 decades, although there does appear to be a slide and a softening of their currency.

China and India are not threat from an economic standpoint, and they have too many cultural issues to overcome before they will ever reach developed world status.

**conza88** · 01-11-2008, 12:17 AM

Gold is record high... ever.
www.321gold.com
- why? Because US dollar is tanking.
- why? Because of inflation, and fears the US will default on its debt, which is in the trillions and only GROWING.
- why? Because the FED prints money out of thin air. It's called fiat currency. It is not backed by anything; it is NOT sound money.
- When you create more of something, its value decreases.. (they print more money, by the billions and dump it into US economy) the value of a dollar decreases.

They BORROW money they do NOT have, from China - to fund the war in Iraq.

Ron Paul : House of Cards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaxdUPNYj2s

Watch. Ron Paul is AMerica's ONLY Hope btw.. check him out, he's AMAZING!

- It's going down, hard and fast. GET RID of ALL your shares.

**Gumshoe Mystery** · 01-11-2008, 04:43 AM

Yeah, give it 20 years like Chessic-Adventures said and the US will not be the power it was.

If what Conza says is true about the printing of money then no doubt some form of hyperinflation could occur as what happened in germany in the 1920s.

I don't want to be around when America becomes a non-superpower.

**Iconoclast** · 01-25-2008, 09:03 AM

There is in the world of talking heads, a poor understanding of how the world economy really works. They talk of countries and national economies. However, for many decades now - how do they not know this - the most important players are not states, but corporations. The corporations control the governments.

The people(s) of the world do better/worse depending on their individual relationships with corporations, not governments. If you or your boss own or are owned by a corporation, you will do OK. This can be seen in both the western economies (eg superannuation, shares) and the new economies (eg China's neuvo riche.)

So, to talk of the USA crashing is not quite right. You should speak of the USA working/middle classes being less rich as the Chindia colossus commands more of the planet's resources.

**Gumshoe Mystery** · 01-26-2008, 01:27 AM

So, you're saying that there is some secret order of the heads of the biggest corporations of the world that determine events according to what would suit them best? Something akin to the Gods in Terry Pratchett's Discworld novels?

**Iconoclast** · 01-26-2008, 12:01 PM

Originally Posted by Gumshoe Mystery

... some secret order of the heads of the biggest corporations of the world that determine events according to what would suit them best?

No, not a secret group, nor do they conspire. They are just the decision makers for their particular corporation. Sometimes their goals align, sometimes not. Sometimes they are identified in the board media, often not.

I am not a conspiracy theorist. However, I understand that our institutions/corporations and history/future and religions/arts are mostly ad hoc and transient. They compete for our mind-time and they attain a dynamic equilibrium that persists for very many generations. Then, BAM! the world turns nasty for us.

So, to take that back to the mooted USA economic train wreck, It will not be all bad for all Americans. Individual Americans and certain groups will be under pressure - same in Australia. The pressure is a result of chaos - the natural chaos that accompanies all real world phenomena, even the beautifully complex, congenial and apparently stable phenomena.

I think I am being a tad too philosophical with all this, but how else for a mere human to see the "big picture."

**Arrogant-One** · 01-26-2008, 11:43 PM

Originally Posted by Iconoclast

The corporations control the governments.

This is partially true even in democratic governments.

In Canada until about 2 years ago corporate donations to the major political parties were very, very generous. Once that was made illegal, however, and a maximum limit of $500 per donation (either by a corporation or an individual) was introduced, I think to a large extent at that point corporate influence was greatly diminished.

Basically its not so much the corporations in and of themselves who have considerable influence, rather it is the money they use to manipulate political forces to do their bidding.

AO

**sheltered** · 05-03-2008, 10:32 AM

Well I think that they are on the economic downfall currently cause of currency issues. The fed's need to work out that issue and the war in Iraq really is not helping.

I'm looking to see the new presidential elections take the most responsibility for fixing the issues they have now- especially with credit and real estate. Also the faster they get out of Iraq the better...the damage of the war is really starting to show

**YumYum** · 05-21-2008, 08:18 PM

Originally Posted by sheltered

Well I think that they are on the economic downfall currently cause of currency issues. The fed's need to work out that issue and the war in Iraq really is not helping.

I'm looking to see the new presidential elections take the most responsibility for fixing the issues they have now- especially with credit and real estate. Also the faster they get out of Iraq the better...the damage of the war is really starting to show

Obama will get the US out of Iraq when he becomes president. Then things will go better for the US economy, and that will lead to a worldwide return of easy credit and big spending, and the comfortable lifestyle most countries like Australia have become used to will become established for about 4 more years..

**Iconoclast** · 05-25-2008, 08:38 PM

Originally Posted by YumYum

Obama will get the US out of Iraq when he becomes president. Then things will go better for the US economy, and that will lead to a worldwide return of easy credit and big spending, and the comfortable lifestyle most countries like Australia have become used to will become established for about 4 more years..

Oh goody gum drops. Four more years of accumulating even greater debt to China and India, along with import induced destruction of our industry base and consequential loss in capacity to stay militarily strong(er) in a world slowly running out of food. I can hardly wait.

The alternative is John McCain sinks the US further down the Iraqi toilet, and induces a world wide recession and a decades long stagflation thereby slowing the Asian tigers while condemning the underclasses of the first world to a generation of crime and miser, while still making no headway in developing ecologically sustainable economies.

Gee wizz, which one do I pick, ooh ooh. Can I phone a friend.

01-08-2008, 05:08 AM	#1 (permalink)
Gumshoe Mystery Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 141	Is the US in Decline? With the US Dollar averaging around 2:1 with the GBP and the Euro getting stronger against both currencies, do you feel that America will become less depended on by other nations? Especially as the likes of China and India are starting to improve their economies and able to produce cheaper goods to the global market. __________________ Student Retreat \| Web Hosting from £1.95 a Month

01-10-2008, 12:07 PM	#3 (permalink)
Virgil Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 207	Originally Posted by Gumshoe Mystery With the US Dollar averaging around 2:1 with the GBP and the Euro getting stronger against both currencies, do you feel that America will become less depended on by other nations? Especially as the likes of China and India are starting to improve their economies and able to produce cheaper goods to the global market. The capability to produce cheaper goods has long been a key factor in the growth of economies. Japan and Taiwan were startling, and Taiwan continues to be. Korea has been down this path. Now China and India are on every-one's radar and have the added advantage of huge populations in comparison with J,T, and K. The attempts by America to counter their high costs by off-shoring manufacturing to developing countries, and then repatriate the profit back to America must fail while they squander their profits on an attempt to be policeman to the world, and while they indulge in unnecessary wars, and while they try to export democracy to foreign cultures. Without super-profits America will not have the fuel for economic growth. (Edit. I mean, without super-profits retained for growth investments in contrast to being diverted to cultural crusades). The attempt (maybe not deliberate) to have a low cost Hispanic work-force on-shore via illegal immigration is also no solution if the profits are similarly squandered. America has advantages in their position on technical-invention curves, and in their creativity. But these are advantages in the early part of a product development life-cycle. This is not where the super-profits are made for the long-term. Yes, the USA will be overtaken. They show no signs of relinquishing the policeman war-like role they have chosen.

01-10-2008, 03:17 PM	#4 (permalink)
Chessic-Adventures Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Sydney Posts: 204	America in 20 years Originally Posted by Gumshoe Mystery With the US Dollar averaging around 2:1 with the GBP and the Euro getting stronger against both currencies, do you feel that America will become less depended on by other nations? Especially as the likes of China and India are starting to improve their economies and able to produce cheaper goods to the global market. Have we seen the decline of the American Empire? I would say no. The Iraq invasion showed that they are not afraid to use their military might. What about economically? Again, I think they will continue to be the world largest economy for at least the next 2 decades, although there does appear to be a slide and a softening of their currency. China and India are not threat from an economic standpoint, and they have too many cultural issues to overcome before they will ever reach developed world status.

01-11-2008, 12:17 AM	#5 (permalink)
conza88 Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3	It SURE is. Question is; a recession or a depression? Gold is record high... ever. www.321gold.com - why? Because US dollar is tanking. - why? Because of inflation, and fears the US will default on its debt, which is in the trillions and only GROWING. - why? Because the FED prints money out of thin air. It's called fiat currency. It is not backed by anything; it is NOT sound money. - When you create more of something, its value decreases.. (they print more money, by the billions and dump it into US economy) the value of a dollar decreases. They BORROW money they do NOT have, from China - to fund the war in Iraq. Ron Paul : House of Cards http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaxdUPNYj2s Watch. Ron Paul is AMerica's ONLY Hope btw.. check him out, he's AMAZING! - It's going down, hard and fast. GET RID of ALL your shares.

01-11-2008, 04:43 AM	#6 (permalink)
Gumshoe Mystery Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 141	Yeah, give it 20 years like Chessic-Adventures said and the US will not be the power it was. If what Conza says is true about the printing of money then no doubt some form of hyperinflation could occur as what happened in germany in the 1920s. I don't want to be around when America becomes a non-superpower. __________________ Student Retreat \| Web Hosting from £1.95 a Month

01-09-2008, 02:11 PM	#2 (permalink)
Gendo Ikari Director Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 100	I'm fairly sure the US economy is headed for a recession - the reserve bank has been doing patchwork to keep things afloat but it's going to catch up with them eventually.

01-25-2008, 09:03 AM	#7 (permalink)
Iconoclast Immoderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Wollongong NSW Posts: 1,006	There is in the world of talking heads, a poor understanding of how the world economy really works. They talk of countries and national economies. However, for many decades now - how do they not know this - the most important players are not states, but corporations. The corporations control the governments. The people(s) of the world do better/worse depending on their individual relationships with corporations, not governments. If you or your boss own or are owned by a corporation, you will do OK. This can be seen in both the western economies (eg superannuation, shares) and the new economies (eg China's neuvo riche.) So, to talk of the USA crashing is not quite right. You should speak of the USA working/middle classes being less rich as the Chindia colossus commands more of the planet's resources. __________________ The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals.

01-26-2008, 01:27 AM	#8 (permalink)
Gumshoe Mystery Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 141	So, you're saying that there is some secret order of the heads of the biggest corporations of the world that determine events according to what would suit them best? Something akin to the Gods in Terry Pratchett's Discworld novels? __________________ Student Retreat \| Web Hosting from £1.95 a Month

01-26-2008, 12:01 PM	#9 (permalink)
Iconoclast Immoderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Wollongong NSW Posts: 1,006	Originally Posted by Gumshoe Mystery ... some secret order of the heads of the biggest corporations of the world that determine events according to what would suit them best? No, not a secret group, nor do they conspire. They are just the decision makers for their particular corporation. Sometimes their goals align, sometimes not. Sometimes they are identified in the board media, often not. I am not a conspiracy theorist. However, I understand that our institutions/corporations and history/future and religions/arts are mostly ad hoc and transient. They compete for our mind-time and they attain a dynamic equilibrium that persists for very many generations. Then, BAM! the world turns nasty for us. So, to take that back to the mooted USA economic train wreck, It will not be all bad for all Americans. Individual Americans and certain groups will be under pressure - same in Australia. The pressure is a result of chaos - the natural chaos that accompanies all real world phenomena, even the beautifully complex, congenial and apparently stable phenomena. I think I am being a tad too philosophical with all this, but how else for a mere human to see the "big picture." __________________ The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals.

01-26-2008, 11:43 PM	#10 (permalink)
Arrogant-One Tin Cup Champ 2004 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 1,682 ICC Handle: Just2Good FICS Handle: Advantage	He who pays the piper ... Originally Posted by Iconoclast The corporations control the governments. This is partially true even in democratic governments. In Canada until about 2 years ago corporate donations to the major political parties were very, very generous. Once that was made illegal, however, and a maximum limit of $500 per donation (either by a corporation or an individual) was introduced, I think to a large extent at that point corporate influence was greatly diminished. Basically its not so much the corporations in and of themselves who have considerable influence, rather it is the money they use to manipulate political forces to do their bidding. AO __________________ . ... for it is always the person not in the predicament who knows what ought to have been done in it, and would unquestionably have done it too . . . ~ Charles Dickens novel ~

05-03-2008, 10:32 AM	#11 (permalink)
sheltered Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 15	Well I think that they are on the economic downfall currently cause of currency issues. The fed's need to work out that issue and the war in Iraq really is not helping. I'm looking to see the new presidential elections take the most responsibility for fixing the issues they have now- especially with credit and real estate. Also the faster they get out of Iraq the better...the damage of the war is really starting to show __________________ Noob Forum – That's right, you read correctly...we love newbies! Register Today – and become part of the action!

05-21-2008, 08:18 PM	#12 (permalink)
YumYum Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Melbourne, Australia Posts: 112	Originally Posted by sheltered Well I think that they are on the economic downfall currently cause of currency issues. The fed's need to work out that issue and the war in Iraq really is not helping. I'm looking to see the new presidential elections take the most responsibility for fixing the issues they have now- especially with credit and real estate. Also the faster they get out of Iraq the better...the damage of the war is really starting to show Obama will get the US out of Iraq when he becomes president. Then things will go better for the US economy, and that will lead to a worldwide return of easy credit and big spending, and the comfortable lifestyle most countries like Australia have become used to will become established for about 4 more years.. __________________ Panda is what the world was waiting for!

05-25-2008, 08:38 PM	#13 (permalink)
Iconoclast Immoderator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Wollongong NSW Posts: 1,006	Originally Posted by YumYum Obama will get the US out of Iraq when he becomes president. Then things will go better for the US economy, and that will lead to a worldwide return of easy credit and big spending, and the comfortable lifestyle most countries like Australia have become used to will become established for about 4 more years.. Oh goody gum drops. Four more years of accumulating even greater debt to China and India, along with import induced destruction of our industry base and consequential loss in capacity to stay militarily strong(er) in a world slowly running out of food. I can hardly wait. The alternative is John McCain sinks the US further down the Iraqi toilet, and induces a world wide recession and a decades long stagflation thereby slowing the Asian tigers while condemning the underclasses of the first world to a generation of crime and miser, while still making no headway in developing ecologically sustainable economies. Gee wizz, which one do I pick, ooh ooh. Can I phone a friend. __________________ The individual is hopeless without the group. The group is hopeless without its individuals.

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