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Old 02-22-2008, 05:17 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Rating Systems

The only time you tried to wipe the floor with an ACF rating system by submitting a prediction that you thought would effectively second-guess it, you were the one who ended up towelled, by a very wide margin indeed.
Indeed yes, an abject failure. But firstly I had the courage to have a go at “second guessing.” Secondly, the algorithm has been chucked and a new one trialed. It is very good, and now awaits its day. That will not be until Bill Gletsos goes.

That was over four years ago now and despite your various empty claims to be cooking up something superior, all we have had from you since is bile and theoretical bluster from a person who pretends that he understands ratings but is not willing to invest the hard yakka required to come up with an effective critique or alternative.
It is done. Call me a liar if you like, but of all the names used against me, that particular one has never had legs.

Matthew, are you saying that "??" ratings should not be published?
Yes. There is a point at which a rating should not be published. At present, 9 games are required including at least 1 win or 1 loss or a draw.. Why not 7 games, or 5 ? Because they would need “????????” after them. If you cannot get a !! then don’t publish it. Better still, why not simply publish the calculated confidence limits. We won’t hold our breath. Bill Gletsos has “SECRET ACF RATING OFFICER BUSINESS.”

If you want to debate this any further, you can do it here. We accept all types at OzChess – even the most cuckholdable. I will say one thing for Bill Gletsos though, while he had no success here in bringing OzChess down to his Chess Chat level of abuse, at least he had the courage to try. You on the other hand are a proven coward, proven bully who cannot stand to lose and will use any moderation weapon to avoid a spanking.
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Old 02-22-2008, 09:34 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I was looking for some Noam Chomsky clips and came across this:
In particular, is the way the ACF runs its rating system, and its event bidding system, described well here?
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Old 02-22-2008, 10:35 PM   #3 (permalink)
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In terms of the ELO vs the GLICKO system, FICS uses GLICKO and ICC uses ELO. My rating is higher on ICC than on FICS, but does this mean that generally GLICKO leads to lower ratings for same strength players?
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Old 02-23-2008, 01:33 AM   #4 (permalink)
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no it just means icc do not control inflation
 

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Old 02-23-2008, 08:04 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Chessic-Adventures View Post
In terms of the ELO vs the GLICKO system, FICS uses GLICKO and ICC uses ELO. My rating is higher on ICC than on FICS, but does this mean that generally GLICKO leads to lower ratings for same strength players?
Nice question!

Most things we measure, we measure in units - kg cm kWh et cetera. Furthermore, units can be compared. For example, km, miles, light years et cetera can be converted to each other. It is the similar in chess ratings. Elo, Glicko, NSWJCL, ICC can all be compared if you know the conversion method.

Note: The actual numbers in all chess ratings, are unitless. That is, they do not relate to the absolute measures of time distance and mass. Chess ratings are only relative. For example, the following sets of three unitless numbers all carry the same information.

80 100 220

8 10 22 (divided by 10)

1008 1010 1022 (divided by 10 and plus 1000)

In chess ratings, the actual number also carries information that tells us something about the probability of a result.

For example. The gap between two ratings is a measure of the probability that one player will beat the other. From your own experience you will know that a 1200 might beat a 2000, one time in a hundred, but a 1200 might beat a 1600 one time in ten.

There are further complications - skew, dynamics, inflation, et cetera - but I will answer those questions only if asked.

Hope this helps.
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Old 02-23-2008, 09:00 AM   #6 (permalink)
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In the comments section to this post on my blog, there is a very nice post on Glicko and the issues some people are having with it.
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Old 02-23-2008, 11:00 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Yes Shaun, Glicko has some nifty tricks:

[others] implying that opponents who subsequently played against her would suffer the consequences of her under-rating causing them to lose out on the rating points scale.

Anyone who knows how the Glicko system works will realise that this is not the case.
True.

However, that does not make Glicko "good," though, certainly it is one major improvement over the Elo system.

As we know, the Glicko "?? ? ! !!" system for calculating a rating is vastly superior to the Elo, which doe not use/generate a reliability of each rating, and therefore is not a variable in its algorithm.

The two main problems most players have are:
1. The SECRECY behind determining the weight given to recent results as opposed to the greater history of games. (We both know that the balance has been determined by curve fitting. However, that process has never been vetted.)
2. The SECRECY behind the enigmatic volatility factor that is applied to Glicko by the ACF ratings officer. This is an unacceptable state of affairs. It lends ammunition to those who claim Bill Gletsos is fudging the figures.

It follows that, the answer from the ACF to most complaints, is always and only, "The computer says so." It has long been my theory, that Bill Gletsos, for all his mental RAM and MHz, he is a stand alone unit devoid of software - utterly.

Back to ratings >>>

One important capability of a predictive model, is that it predicts. That is, it generates NOT what is the position NOW, but what it will be in the FUTURE. Currently, there is no rating system (AFAIK - except for mine) that is a predictive model and accounts for dynamic elements.

Ask me why "dynamic elements" are.
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Old 02-14-2009, 06:01 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Default Oh no! And now here too.

The GURU sends out some pretty impressive promotional newsletters on occasions, and his knight_times_2009_02.pdf is good example of the glossy.
He is usually to be congratulated for presenting the high end of publicity in my view.

However this para. from the most recent newsletter is certainly foreign to the health of the state and national chess associations.

Chess Kids will be introducing a rating system for junior
players in 2009. Every player who plays in a tournament
will have their own chess rating. After playing your first
tournament you will be given a rating based on your
performance.


Close readers of Ozchess will know that I have campaigned long against the fragmentary practice in NSW where a junior rating system is maintained outside the the official national system managed so accurately by Bill Gletsos.
In my view we can't afford the splitting of volunteer efforts that comes from running multiple rating systems.
Further, multiple systems in the one state causes confusion in the parent community and this does not help our image.

Well, as the coloured quote above shows, the fragmentation is about to occur in Victoria too.
And I guess this will be a third variant to the ACF system.
What a waste of energy in chess administration. It is not as though we are over-endowed with volunteers.




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Old 03-02-2009, 10:50 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Default Box Hill CC members <active and 09 financial>. March ratings

Code:
Anderson	Bill	575
Ang   	Stephanie	1165
Bergmanis	Olgerts	1600
Brennan	James	681
Brooks	Chris 	1738
Cameron	James	1709
Cannon	David	393
Cannon	Jim   	1207
Cheng	Bobby	2133
Chmiel	Rad   	1728
Chow	Samuel	2348
Cook	Geoff L	1542
Creedon	David	1141
Croft	 Roger 	1490
Dalton	Laurie	1339
Elbrish	Sam	1291
Fan	Jenny	963
Feng	Tim	1270
Feng	Thomas	1472
Fielder	Shaun	1070
Flude	David A	1644
Frost	Peter	1548
Gurevich	A	1233
Hartland	Gerry	1409
Johansen	D	2412
Kempen	Leon	1917
Lai	Gene	1537
Lacey	David	1756
Lawson	Shane	1631
Lemmel	Oliver	1022
Liston	Howard	1805
Liu	N	1536
Lyons	Linden	1132
Matheson	L	1926
Mezei	Andrew	1099
Mustafa	Metin	1227
Neymanis	Eric	1099
Podvorac	Zeljko	1606
Raine	Marcus	1881
Renzies	Elliott	1405
Rozenblat	Vanja	1435
Sandler	Leonid [IM]	2188
Sannidhanam	Anurag	1551
Saw	Geoffrey [FM]	2249
Schneider	David	1703
Schon	Eugene	2094
Schulzer	Peter	1656
Sharman	Scot A	1681
Stanning	Trevor	1489
Szuveges	N	1684
Tan	Justin	1805
Tang	Jason	1808
Tanner	Michael	1044
Tionko	Efrain	1801
Umber	George	1463
Vijayakumar	Rengan	1721
Vijayakumar	Rukman	2048
Wallis	Christopher	2124
Yu	Derek	1838
Yu	Sally	1661
Zivkovic	Sam	1400
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Old 09-01-2009, 10:51 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Default Official ratings for Sept 2009 now released.

Excellent work by the State and national folk to issue Sept ratings...full detail presumably flows in a day or so through the channels.
Picking from the highlights....Busiest Players caught my eye in particulr.

Code:
Busiest Players
	 1800  62  ACT  Guo, Emma
	 1858  58  VIC  Voon, Richard
	 1898  56  VIC  Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija
	 2163  54  VIC  Cheng, Bobby
	 2160  51  VIC  Morris, James
	 1825  51   SA  Searle, Zachary
	 1730  50  QLD  Stahnke, Alexander
	 2118  49  VIC  Dragicevic, Domagoj
	 2011  44  VIC  Matheson, Laurence
	 1900  44  QLD  Grigg, Sam
	 1904  44   SA  Juszczynski, Mathew
	 1716  42  VIC  Yu, Sally
	 1281  42  VIC  Lakshman, Vinay
	 1721  40  NSW  Encel, Benjamin
	 1250  39  VIC  Loh, Zachary
	 1468  39  VIC  Sannidhanam, Anurag
	 1327  39  VIC  Hayman, Adam
	 1409  38  ACT  Derwent, Ethan
	 1996  38  VIC  Tang, Jason
	 1538  38  VIC  Lai, Gene
	 1290  37  ACT  Ingham, Glenn
	 1515  37  NSW  Parker, Trent
	 1724  37  VIC  Chmiel, Rad
	 2535  37  ACT  Smerdon, David C
	 1924  37   WA  Vlietstra, Marc
	 1974  36  ACT  Brown, Andrew
	 1353  36  VIC  Renzies, Elliott
	  495  36  VIC  Gu, Stephanie
	 1804  35  VIC  Davis, Tony J
	 2034  35  QLD  Nakauchi, Gene
	 1639  34  NSW  Tan, Kevin
	 1497  34  VIC  Kostrzewa, Jake
	 1835  34  QLD  Liu, Yi (1997)
	 1563  34  VIC  Ghayoori, Pezhman
	 2370  34  QLD  Solomon, Stephen J
	 1475  34  QLD  Lapitan, Daniel
	 2171  33  VIC  Schon, Eugene
	 1347  32  ACT  Setiabudi, Megan
	 1786  32  VIC  Lycett, Garry
	 1706  32  VIC  Liu, Nicholas
	  810  32  VIC  Narenthran, Savithri
	 1013  32  VIC  Devarajh, Joshua
	  541  32  VIC  Cannon, David
	 1292  32  QLD  Jack, Martin
	 1148  32  QLD  Sands, Gary A
More than 50% from Victoria. That invites speculation. And also indicates Victoria's strong support for the ACF ratings system, rather than aberrant attempts by other bodies to usurp the official system.


Standards make sense.
Reject imitators.

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Old 09-01-2009, 12:28 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by MOZ View Post
More than 50% from Victoria. That invites speculation. And also indicates Victoria's strong support for the ACF ratings system, rather than aberrant attempts by other bodies to usurp the official system.
Queensland and Victoria make up the majority. Really that means Graeme Gardiner and David Cordover deserve the credit for generating most of the chess activity, whilst the ACF sits back and takes them for granted.
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Old 09-01-2009, 01:53 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Arrogant-One View Post
Queensland and Victoria make up the majority. Really that means Graeme Gardiner and David Cordover deserve the credit for generating most of the chess activity, whilst the ACF sits back and takes them for granted.
On the contrary, the Chess Kids organisation does not use the official system for rating purposes.
The members of the Busiest List are all members of Affiliated Clubs, these players and Clubs are not outside the main-stream chess community.
I am sure the ACF appreciates everyone of these Mexicans >
Code:
Busiest Players
	 1800  62  ACT  Guo, Emma
	 1858  58  VIC  Voon, Richard
	 1898  56  VIC  Dizdarevic, Mehmedalija
	 2163  54  VIC  Cheng, Bobby
	 2160  51  VIC  Morris, James
	 1825  51   SA  Searle, Zachary
	 1730  50  QLD  Stahnke, Alexander
	 2118  49  VIC  Dragicevic, Domagoj
	 2011  44  VIC  Matheson, Laurence
	 1900  44  QLD  Grigg, Sam
	 1904  44   SA  Juszczynski, Mathew
	 1716  42  VIC  Yu, Sally
	 1281  42  VIC  Lakshman, Vinay
	 1721  40  NSW  Encel, Benjamin
	 1250  39  VIC  Loh, Zachary
	 1468  39  VIC  Sannidhanam, Anurag
	 1327  39  VIC  Hayman, Adam
	 1409  38  ACT  Derwent, Ethan
	 1996  38  VIC  Tang, Jason
	 1538  38  VIC  Lai, Gene
	 1290  37  ACT  Ingham, Glenn
	 1515  37  NSW  Parker, Trent
	 1724  37  VIC  Chmiel, Rad
	 2535  37  ACT  Smerdon, David C
	 1924  37   WA  Vlietstra, Marc
	 1974  36  ACT  Brown, Andrew
	 1353  36  VIC  Renzies, Elliott
	  495  36  VIC  Gu, Stephanie
	 1804  35  VIC  Davis, Tony J
	 2034  35  QLD  Nakauchi, Gene
	 1639  34  NSW  Tan, Kevin
	 1497  34  VIC  Kostrzewa, Jake
	 1835  34  QLD  Liu, Yi (1997)
	 1563  34  VIC  Ghayoori, Pezhman
	 2370  34  QLD  Solomon, Stephen J
	 1475  34  QLD  Lapitan, Daniel
	 2171  33  VIC  Schon, Eugene
	 1347  32  ACT  Setiabudi, Megan
	 1786  32  VIC  Lycett, Garry
	 1706  32  VIC  Liu, Nicholas
	  810  32  VIC  Narenthran, Savithri
	 1013  32  VIC  Devarajh, Joshua
	  541  32  VIC  Cannon, David
	 1292  32  QLD  Jack, Martin
	 1148  32  QLD  Sands, Gary A
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Old 09-01-2009, 05:44 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Default Go Victoria!

Out of 58 names in the top age group lists, a third comes from Victoria! Go VIC
Code:
State	Name	
ACT	Brown, Andrew	
	Derwent, Ethan	
	Guo, Emma	
	Ikeda, Junta	
	Yuan, Yi	
ACT Proportion of Total		9%
NSW	Chen, Peng Yu	
	Gu, Sean	
	Illingworth, Max	
	Koh, Cedric	
	Lau, Joshua	
	Mandla, Blair	
	Pan, Andrew	
	Papantoniou, John	
	Ruan, Harry	
	Ruan, Jack	
	Siow-Lee, Dylan	
	Smirnov, Anton	
	Wang, Oscar	
NSW Proportion of Total		22%
QLD	Gray, Callum	
	Grigg, Sam	
	Lapitan, Daniel	
	Lazarus, Benjamin	
	Liu, Yi (1997)	
	Ly, Moulthun	
	McClymont, Brodie	
	Muller, Jonas	
	Nakauchi, Gene [FM]	
	Ousmand, Nizami	
	Ousmand, Vineths	
	Stahnke, Alexander	
QLD Proportion of Total		21%
SA	Bortsova, Natasha	
	Cameron, Alistair	
	Searle, Zachary	
	Zulfic, Fedja	
SA Proportion of Total		7%
TAS	Carter, Mason	
	Dyer, Alastair	
TAS Proportion of Total		3%
VIC	Chan, Michael	
	Cheng, Bobby	
	Dalton, Samuel	
	Ding, Yilun	
	Kiripitige, Punala	
	Liu, Nicholas	
	Loh, Zachary	
	Matheson, Laurence	
	Morris, James [FM]	
	Ng, Isaac	
	Sannidhanam, Anurag	
	Schon, Eugene	
	Stojic, Dusan	
	Tan, Justin	
	Tang, Jason	
	Wallis, Christopher	
	Wallmueller, Peter	
	Wong, Joseph	
	Yu, Alec	
VIC Proportion of Total		33%
WA	Choong, Yita	
	Donaldson, Thomas	
	Sam, Ryan	
WA Proportion of Total		5%
(I think Punala lives in SA now though)
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Old 09-01-2009, 07:16 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Z&MLoh View Post
Out of 58 names in the top age group lists, a third comes from Victoria! Go VIC
Code:
State	Name	
ACT	Brown, Andrew	
	Derwent, Ethan	
	Guo, Emma	
	Ikeda, Junta	
	Yuan, Yi	
ACT Proportion of Total		9%
NSW	Chen, Peng Yu	
	Gu, Sean	
	Illingworth, Max	
	Koh, Cedric	
	Lau, Joshua	
	Mandla, Blair	
	Pan, Andrew	
	Papantoniou, John	
	Ruan, Harry	
	Ruan, Jack	
	Siow-Lee, Dylan	
	Smirnov, Anton	
	Wang, Oscar	
NSW Proportion of Total		22%
QLD	Gray, Callum	
	Grigg, Sam	
	Lapitan, Daniel	
	Lazarus, Benjamin	
	Liu, Yi (1997)	
	Ly, Moulthun	
	McClymont, Brodie	
	Muller, Jonas	
	Nakauchi, Gene [FM]	
	Ousmand, Nizami	
	Ousmand, Vineths	
	Stahnke, Alexander	
QLD Proportion of Total		21%
SA	Bortsova, Natasha	
	Cameron, Alistair	
	Searle, Zachary	
	Zulfic, Fedja	
SA Proportion of Total		7%
TAS	Carter, Mason	
	Dyer, Alastair	
TAS Proportion of Total		3%
VIC	Chan, Michael	
	Cheng, Bobby	
	Dalton, Samuel	
	Ding, Yilun	
	Kiripitige, Punala	
	Liu, Nicholas	
	Loh, Zachary	
	Matheson, Laurence	
	Morris, James [FM]	
	Ng, Isaac	
	Sannidhanam, Anurag	
	Schon, Eugene	
	Stojic, Dusan	
	Tan, Justin	
	Tang, Jason	
	Wallis, Christopher	
	Wallmueller, Peter	
	Wong, Joseph	
	Yu, Alec	
VIC Proportion of Total		33%
WA	Choong, Yita	
	Donaldson, Thomas	
	Sam, Ryan	
WA Proportion of Total		5%
(I think Punala lives in SA now though)
If we look at the top juniors, Victoria has 5 out of top 10, 9 out of top 20. About 50%. The future of Australian chess is in Victorian's hands!
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Old 09-01-2009, 08:24 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by frankablanca View Post
The future of Australian chess is in Victorian's hands!
Strange?

I thought the future was IM: Ly Moulthun
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